The Death of the Israeli Left

Ever since the historic defeat of the Labor party in 1977 and the rise of Menachem Begin’s Likud party, the Israeli left has been on the decline.

Now, however, it is more pronounced than ever. The far-left Meretz party, which once held 12 seats in the 120 member Knesset is now the smallest part with only 3; while once dominant Labor has sunk to fourth place with a mere 13 seats.

A telling sign of the trend to the right in Israel is a Dialogue poll conducted for Haaretz last week. According to the poll, Likud would rise from 27 seats to 35, while Labor and Kadima would drop from 13 to 9 and 28 to 25 respectively. The left-wing/Arab bloc as a whole would decline from its present 55 seats to 48, while the right-wing/religious parties would increase from 65 to 72.

More important in the poll, however, was the DISAPPROVAL of Netanyahu despite his party’s growing support. The primary reason given? His freezing of settlement construction in the West Bank.

Since his turn to the left, his numbers, which had stayed comfortably in the high-50s to low-60s, have for the first time sunk below 50% and are lower than his disapproval rating. This is a clear smack at the leftist policies of Netanyahu, who despite his party affiliation, is feeling the burn of his actions.

More importantly, however, is the coalition’s confirmation today that it will permit voting overseas. This seemingly innocuous bill, which was first proposed by Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party and fixed as a basis of their coalition agreement, augurs major change for Israeli politics.

Israel, unlike the US, has hitherto prohibited all voting outside of the state, except for consular workers and other government positions overseas. This was a natural outgrowth of the feeling in the early days of the state that Israelis who leave the country were abandoning it and the Jewish people. Today, however, Lieberman and Netanyahu see it as an untapped source of electoral strength.

It is estimated that close to 1 million Israeli citizens live overseas, the overwhelming majority of them Jewish. These expatriates, who usually left for economic reasons, tend towards the right politically, and represent a potential voting bloc for Likud and Yisrael Beitenu.

Their inclusion in Israeli elections would go along way in nullifying the electoral power of Israeli Arabs, who constitute about 22% of the country but only a tiny percent of Israeli expatriates. Currently their vote is split roughly 50-50 between Arab parties and the left.

If and when this bill will pass, it will likely be the final death-null for the already battered Israeli left. Meretz, the furthest to the left, will probably be the first to go, and may not survive the next election cycle.